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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.99+1.65vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.69vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+4.16vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.94+0.74vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.55+3.73vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+1.66vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.71+0.92vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.59+0.47vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles1.70-3.54vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.64-1.53vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.41-1.88vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-3.28vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego0.50-4.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-2.30-0.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.65Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
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3.69University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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7.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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4.74University of Hawaii1.940.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
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7.66California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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7.92University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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8.47Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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5.46University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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8.47University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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9.12Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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8.72University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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8.69University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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13.52University of California at Irvine-2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 34.4% | 23.7% | 15.1% | 11.7% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 18.6% | 18.8% | 15.8% | 15.6% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 0.2% |
| Owen Lahr | 9.6% | 14.1% | 16.1% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Luu | 2.4% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 1.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 0.9% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 2.2% |
| Grant Janov | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 1.6% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 2.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 1.9% |
| Noah Barton | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 2.0% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 5.5% | 85.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.