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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.99+1.61vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+1.68vs Predicted
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3University of Hawaii1.94+1.72vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.50+4.84vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.64+3.43vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.55+2.73vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.70-1.83vs Predicted
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8California Poly Maritime Academy0.93-0.51vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.41+0.13vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.71-1.71vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.59-2.45vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05-4.77vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-4.40vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-2.30-0.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.61Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
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3.68University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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4.72University of Hawaii1.940.1%1st Place
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8.84University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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8.43University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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8.73University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
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5.17University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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7.49California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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9.13Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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8.29University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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8.55Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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7.23Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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8.6University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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13.53University of California at Irvine-2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 34.5% | 24.4% | 15.1% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kayda | 17.9% | 18.0% | 18.4% | 13.9% | 12.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Lahr | 10.6% | 14.2% | 13.6% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 1.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 13.5% | 2.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 1.3% |
| Benjamin Luu | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 1.7% |
| Grant Janov | 10.1% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Downey | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 0.7% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 15.1% | 2.5% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 1.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 1.6% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.0% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 1.6% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.4% | 86.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.