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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.34+2.96vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.99+0.62vs Predicted
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3Western Washington University0.41+6.07vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.70+1.48vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.55+3.78vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.59+2.71vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+0.02vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley0.71+0.22vs Predicted
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9University of Hawaii2.38-5.09vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.50-1.08vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.64-2.48vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-3.22vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.30+0.49vs Predicted
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14California Poly Maritime Academy0.93-6.48vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.96University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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2.62Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
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9.07Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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5.48University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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8.78University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
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8.71Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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7.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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8.22University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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3.91University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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8.92University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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8.52University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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8.78University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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13.49University of California at Irvine-2.300.0%1st Place
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7.52California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kayda | 16.0% | 17.5% | 16.6% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 32.9% | 24.2% | 16.9% | 12.8% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 15.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% |
| Grant Janov | 7.5% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Luu | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 2.5% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 0.5% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 1.0% |
| Erik Anderson | 16.4% | 15.8% | 17.3% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 1.3% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 1.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.3% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 12.8% | 2.2% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 85.5% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 0.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.