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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+6.25vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+5.43vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.99-0.33vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.41+5.13vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-1.02vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.70-0.41vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+1.50vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.55+0.64vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.59-0.30vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.50-1.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley0.71-2.64vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.64-3.53vs Predicted
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13University of Hawaii2.38-9.20vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-2.30-0.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.0%1st Place
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7.43California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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2.67Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
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9.13Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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3.98University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.1%1st Place
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5.59University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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8.5University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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8.64University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
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8.7Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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8.95University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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8.47University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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3.8University of Hawaii2.380.2%1st Place
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13.54University of California at Irvine-2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Ponting | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 0.2% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 33.0% | 23.4% | 17.6% | 11.2% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 15.8% | 2.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 14.8% | 16.3% | 18.2% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.0% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 1.5% |
| Benjamin Luu | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 2.3% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.9% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 1.5% |
| Noah Barton | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 2.2% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 1.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 1.4% |
| Erik Anderson | 17.6% | 17.7% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 86.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.