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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.99+1.54vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.05+4.81vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.93+4.17vs Predicted
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4University of Hawaii1.94+0.60vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+3.04vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara2.34-2.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.71+0.53vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.50+0.24vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.59-0.89vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.55-1.96vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.70-5.99vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.41-3.39vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-2.30-0.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.54Stanford University2.990.3%1st Place
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6.81Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.050.1%1st Place
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7.17California Poly Maritime Academy0.930.0%1st Place
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4.6University of Hawaii1.940.1%1st Place
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8.04University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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3.68University of California at Santa Barbara2.340.2%1st Place
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7.53University of California at Berkeley0.710.0%1st Place
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8.24University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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8.11Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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8.04University of Washington0.550.0%1st Place
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5.01University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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8.61Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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12.61University of California at Irvine-2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 33.4% | 26.0% | 16.7% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Downey | 3.4% | 3.3% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 0.8% |
| Owen Lahr | 11.0% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 1.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 18.9% | 17.5% | 16.5% | 14.7% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 1.4% |
| Noah Barton | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 1.8% |
| Benjamin Luu | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 12.8% | 13.6% | 1.9% |
| Grant Janov | 9.1% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 15.9% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 15.2% | 18.6% | 2.6% |
| Sriskandha Kandimalla | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 88.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.