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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.28+2.49vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.77+0.55vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.50vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+4.44vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.58+3.20vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.20+3.36vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.32+1.57vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.79-0.60vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-1.90vs Predicted
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10University of Washington0.38-1.19vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.30-4.97vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.08-2.38vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-4.49vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.49University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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2.55Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
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5.5University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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8.44University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.2University of Southern California0.580.0%1st Place
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9.36University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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8.57Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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7.4University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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7.1California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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8.81University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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6.03University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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9.62Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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8.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 20.9% | 20.1% | 18.6% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 34.4% | 26.4% | 15.8% | 10.2% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| George Soliman | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 5.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 4.6% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Kyle Farmer | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 7.4% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.8% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 13.9% |
| Max Case | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 16.9% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.