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📊 Prediction Accuracy
21.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.28+2.53vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.77+0.55vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.54vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.08+5.59vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.32+3.94vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.38+2.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.10vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.11vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.58-0.87vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.79-2.50vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-3.85vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley0.20-2.75vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-4.45vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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2.55Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
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5.54University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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9.59Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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8.94Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.81University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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8.1University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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5.89University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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8.13University of Southern California0.580.0%1st Place
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7.5University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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7.15California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.0%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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8.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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11.46University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 21.0% | 20.5% | 16.8% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 33.3% | 27.1% | 17.0% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.2% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.3% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.7% | 13.4% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 8.1% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.7% |
| George Soliman | 3.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Marlo Bozza | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Kyle Farmer | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.4% |
| Max Case | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 5.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 8.8% | 16.9% | 39.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.