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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+4.49vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.28+1.38vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.77-0.44vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.06+2.58vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.32+3.87vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.79+1.54vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+1.08vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+0.50vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-1.93vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University0.08-0.33vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.58-2.90vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.38-3.33vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley0.20-3.92vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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3.38University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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2.56Stanford University2.770.4%1st Place
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6.58University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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8.87Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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7.54University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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8.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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7.07California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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9.67Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Southern California0.580.0%1st Place
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8.67University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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9.08University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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11.42University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 8.0% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Bastien Rasse | 20.5% | 22.5% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Lim | 35.6% | 23.6% | 16.1% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.1% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.3% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.7% |
| George Soliman | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Max Case | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.5% |
| Kyle Farmer | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 12.8% | 14.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.7% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 8.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 17.4% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.