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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Hawaii2.28+2.42vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+3.35vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.79+4.40vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.77-1.37vs Predicted
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5Western Washington University0.08+4.60vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.06+0.71vs Predicted
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7Arizona State University0.32+1.57vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+0.29vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-0.42vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.20-0.70vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California0.58-2.90vs Predicted
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12University of Washington0.38-3.34vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-6.03vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.42University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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5.35University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.4University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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2.63Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
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9.6Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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6.71University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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8.57Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.29University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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9.3University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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8.1University of Southern California0.580.0%1st Place
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8.66University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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6.97California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.0%1st Place
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11.43University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastien Rasse | 21.6% | 21.7% | 17.5% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.9% | 10.7% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| Justin Lim | 32.1% | 25.1% | 17.6% | 11.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% |
| George Soliman | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| Max Case | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 5.4% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.0% | 12.8% | 10.3% |
| Marlo Bozza | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% |
| Kyle Farmer | 4.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 10.5% | 16.0% | 39.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.