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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.77+1.57vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.28+1.26vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.06+3.47vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.20+5.14vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.53vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.36vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+1.18vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.08+1.34vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-2.06vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.32-1.18vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego0.79-3.62vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California-0.10-2.04vs Predicted
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13University of Washington0.62-5.27vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.57Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
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3.26University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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6.47University of California at Los Angeles1.060.1%1st Place
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9.14University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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5.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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8.36University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.18Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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9.34Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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6.94California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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8.82Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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7.38University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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9.96University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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7.73University of Washington0.620.0%1st Place
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11.32University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Lim | 33.8% | 26.9% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 23.4% | 20.8% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Wilton Lawton | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 9.3% |
| Ted McDonough | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| George Soliman | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 5.9% |
| Max Case | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 13.2% |
| Kyle Farmer | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 7.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Edward Ansart | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 15.8% |
| Erin Pamplin | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 18.2% | 35.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.