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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.77+1.59vs Predicted
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2University of Hawaii2.28+1.35vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.45vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.79+3.34vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+3.54vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.34vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.20+1.75vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.62-0.27vs Predicted
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9Western Washington University0.08+0.44vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-3.02vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.30-5.07vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.32-3.28vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.38-2.43vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.59Stanford University2.770.4%1st Place
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3.35University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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5.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.34University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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8.54Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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8.34University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.75University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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7.73University of Washington0.620.0%1st Place
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9.44Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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6.98California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.0%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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8.72Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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10.57University of Southern California-0.380.0%1st Place
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11.27University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Lim | 35.3% | 23.8% | 16.0% | 10.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bastien Rasse | 21.9% | 20.9% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.3% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Max Case | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 6.3% |
| George Soliman | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% |
| Wilton Lawton | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% |
| Erin Pamplin | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 4.1% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 14.4% | 10.9% | 10.4% |
| Kyle Farmer | 4.5% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 7.0% |
| Eleanor Desai | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 18.7% | 21.7% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 18.5% | 33.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.