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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+4.41vs Predicted
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2Stanford University2.77+0.52vs Predicted
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3University of California at Berkeley0.20+6.00vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.79+3.34vs Predicted
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5California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.03vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.30-0.06vs Predicted
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7University of Hawaii2.28-3.66vs Predicted
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8University of Washington0.62-0.31vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-0.74vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.32-1.23vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41-2.49vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.08-2.61vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California-0.38-2.46vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-0.66-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.41University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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2.52Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
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9.0University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
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7.34University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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7.03California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.0%1st Place
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5.94University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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3.34University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
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7.69University of Washington0.620.0%1st Place
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8.26University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.77Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.51Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
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9.39Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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10.54University of Southern California-0.380.0%1st Place
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11.27University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 8.1% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Justin Lim | 33.5% | 26.9% | 16.9% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 7.6% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Kyle Farmer | 4.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.4% | 8.3% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Bastien Rasse | 21.4% | 20.5% | 17.7% | 15.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erin Pamplin | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 6.4% |
| Max Case | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 11.9% |
| Eleanor Desai | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 16.9% | 22.6% |
| Nikita Swatek | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.9% | 34.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.