← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+4.56vs Predicted
-
2Stanford University2.77+0.57vs Predicted
-
3University of Southern California0.58+5.11vs Predicted
-
4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.41+4.63vs Predicted
-
5University of Hawaii2.28-1.42vs Predicted
-
6University of California at Los Angeles1.30+0.06vs Predicted
-
7University of California at San Diego0.79+0.17vs Predicted
-
8University of Washington0.38+0.59vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Berkeley0.20+0.33vs Predicted
-
10Western Washington University0.08-0.34vs Predicted
-
11California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-3.85vs Predicted
-
12University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-3.58vs Predicted
-
13University of California at Irvine-0.66-1.57vs Predicted
-
14Arizona State University0.32-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.56University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
-
2.57Stanford University2.770.3%1st Place
-
8.11University of Southern California0.580.0%1st Place
-
8.63Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.410.0%1st Place
-
3.58University of Hawaii2.280.2%1st Place
-
6.06University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
-
7.17University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
-
8.59University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
-
9.33University of California at Berkeley0.200.0%1st Place
-
9.66Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
-
7.15California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.0%1st Place
-
8.42University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
-
11.43University of California at Irvine-0.660.0%1st Place
-
8.73Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 8.5% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Justin Lim | 33.9% | 25.3% | 17.2% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Max Case | 2.3% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% |
| Bastien Rasse | 18.8% | 20.2% | 17.5% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.6% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 7.5% |
| Wilton Lawton | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 9.7% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 12.6% | 15.3% | 12.6% |
| Kyle Farmer | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| George Soliman | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% |
| Nikita Swatek | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 40.6% |
| Matt Grimsley | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.