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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Justin Lim 35.8% 25.3% 17.0% 11.5% 4.5% 3.4% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ted McDonough 9.1% 9.1% 14.0% 12.8% 14.6% 9.9% 10.7% 7.4% 5.6% 2.9% 2.0% 1.7% 0.2%
Marianna Shand 5.0% 7.1% 10.0% 9.9% 12.0% 10.6% 12.4% 11.0% 7.5% 7.2% 3.5% 3.3% 0.5%
Kyle Farmer 5.4% 6.3% 7.5% 10.0% 12.2% 10.8% 8.8% 11.0% 8.5% 8.6% 6.8% 3.2% 0.9%
Bastien Rasse 22.7% 21.7% 16.5% 15.7% 9.2% 7.3% 2.6% 2.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wilton Lawton 2.8% 3.6% 4.1% 5.1% 6.4% 7.4% 8.1% 8.2% 13.1% 11.7% 10.5% 10.8% 8.2%
Nathan Gerber 3.1% 4.0% 3.7% 3.9% 6.5% 6.0% 5.9% 9.0% 10.4% 11.1% 14.4% 13.5% 8.5%
Matt Grimsley 2.9% 4.1% 4.3% 5.7% 7.2% 7.4% 9.3% 8.9% 11.7% 12.2% 11.4% 10.0% 4.9%
Max Case 2.9% 5.2% 4.7% 5.2% 6.8% 7.7% 10.3% 9.1% 12.8% 9.2% 10.9% 9.9% 5.3%
George Soliman 3.7% 5.1% 5.0% 6.1% 7.9% 9.2% 9.8% 10.6% 9.0% 11.1% 9.4% 7.8% 5.3%
Gabriel Reuter 4.6% 6.1% 8.5% 10.4% 7.8% 12.0% 11.5% 10.1% 8.8% 7.4% 7.5% 3.6% 1.7%
Jaden Unruh 1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 3.2% 4.8% 5.1% 5.4% 6.3% 8.8% 12.0% 19.0% 28.6%
Nikita Swatek 1.0% 0.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.7% 3.5% 3.9% 5.8% 5.3% 9.1% 11.6% 17.2% 35.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.