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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.36+2.43vs Predicted
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2Fairfield University1.06+2.07vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.55+0.13vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire1.02-0.13vs Predicted
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5University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.30+1.10vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.65-3.10vs Predicted
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7Bates College-0.59-0.31vs Predicted
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8University of New Hampshire-0.78-1.06vs Predicted
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9Middlebury College-1.50-1.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.43Boston University1.360.2%1st Place
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4.07Fairfield University1.060.1%1st Place
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3.13Bowdoin College1.550.2%1st Place
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3.87University of New Hampshire1.020.1%1st Place
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6.1University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.300.0%1st Place
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2.9Bowdoin College1.650.2%1st Place
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6.69Bates College-0.590.0%1st Place
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6.94University of New Hampshire-0.780.0%1st Place
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7.86Middlebury College-1.500.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Selian | 17.7% | 17.6% | 18.1% | 18.0% | 14.4% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Wilson Kaznoski | 11.1% | 13.8% | 14.3% | 18.5% | 17.0% | 13.9% | 8.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Jonathan Chance | 22.3% | 20.4% | 18.4% | 15.6% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Grace Cannon | 14.2% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 15.9% | 18.6% | 13.1% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Kate Myler | 3.6% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 18.3% | 20.4% | 19.0% | 10.3% |
| Benjamin Stevens | 24.9% | 22.8% | 19.7% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colby Green | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 15.9% | 22.6% | 27.1% | 14.4% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 12.5% | 21.0% | 27.4% | 21.2% |
| Robin Potter | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 12.4% | 20.0% | 52.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.