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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.92vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+5.54vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.30+1.14vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.83+5.24vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.78+4.53vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+1.67vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston2.38+1.34vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.34-0.57vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.27-1.19vs Predicted
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10University of Miami1.93+1.29vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-3.31vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University1.12+0.19vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University1.70-2.69vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.62-3.75vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.45-3.77vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.70-1.69vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.26-6.07vs Predicted
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18University of Texas0.41-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92Yale University2.8511.4%1st Place
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7.54Boston College2.587.0%1st Place
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4.14Stanford University3.3020.1%1st Place
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9.24Tufts University1.834.2%1st Place
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9.53University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.9%1st Place
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7.67Bowdoin College2.066.6%1st Place
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8.34College of Charleston2.385.3%1st Place
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7.43Dartmouth College2.347.4%1st Place
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7.81Georgetown University2.276.2%1st Place
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11.29University of Miami1.933.1%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.327.0%1st Place
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12.19North Carolina State University1.122.2%1st Place
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10.31Jacksonville University1.703.7%1st Place
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10.25Fordham University1.623.6%1st Place
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11.23University of South Florida1.452.5%1st Place
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14.31University of Wisconsin0.701.1%1st Place
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10.93Old Dominion University1.263.1%1st Place
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15.19University of Texas0.410.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 11.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 20.1% | 16.7% | 13.9% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Chase Decker | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Peter Barnard | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 5.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 12.4% | 9.2% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 19.4% | 25.9% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% |
| Reese Zebrowski | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 18.4% | 39.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.