Race 1A

sailpack-oriental-intercollegiate

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Adam Larson 20.3% 17.9% 15.3% 12.9% 11.3% 7.5% 6.1% 4.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Bannasch 21.8% 18.6% 17.0% 12.6% 9.9% 8.7% 5.8% 2.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Manley 9.3% 7.5% 10.8% 11.0% 9.9% 11.6% 12.9% 10.3% 6.9% 5.2% 2.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Usher 10.5% 12.2% 10.5% 12.3% 14.2% 10.2% 9.9% 8.7% 5.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Erik Volk 4.6% 5.7% 6.6% 7.7% 8.5% 9.7% 9.7% 9.2% 11.2% 11.2% 7.8% 5.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Zechariah Frantz 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 2.1% 2.5% 4.2% 4.4% 8.7% 8.3% 9.5% 10.9% 16.2% 13.4% 10.0% 4.4% 0.5%
Gregory Walters 6.6% 9.1% 8.1% 9.7% 9.3% 9.3% 12.4% 9.5% 9.4% 7.5% 5.5% 2.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Lothrop 2.5% 3.3% 4.1% 3.4% 4.9% 6.0% 7.1% 8.1% 9.8% 12.2% 13.9% 10.7% 9.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Olivia Sowa 14.4% 11.9% 13.4% 13.3% 11.2% 11.1% 9.0% 5.9% 4.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William McCollum 3.0% 4.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.2% 5.8% 7.2% 9.3% 11.5% 11.3% 15.4% 9.9% 7.8% 2.2% 0.6% 0.0%
John TIS 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 2.8% 4.8% 7.0% 14.8% 34.4% 29.0%
Matthias Pietrus 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 2.3% 4.3% 7.9% 21.2% 60.0%
Rowan Barnes 2.8% 3.2% 4.0% 5.9% 6.4% 5.4% 7.5% 11.1% 10.2% 12.3% 11.1% 11.0% 5.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Felicity Davies 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.8% 5.1% 9.3% 17.6% 26.3% 21.4% 5.6%
Audrey Craig 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.9% 5.1% 6.9% 11.2% 19.0% 25.7% 15.1% 4.5%
Brandon DePalma 1.2% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 4.8% 6.7% 3.9% 6.6% 10.6% 12.2% 13.3% 13.7% 10.9% 5.7% 1.7% 0.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.