Race 3A

sailpack-oriental-intercollegiate

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Adam Larson 19.2% 18.7% 14.9% 13.4% 11.2% 9.7% 4.5% 3.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gregory Walters 7.1% 10.2% 9.2% 10.4% 8.4% 9.3% 9.7% 11.9% 9.1% 7.4% 4.1% 1.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Bannasch 22.4% 18.5% 17.3% 11.6% 11.1% 9.5% 4.3% 2.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Usher 11.0% 11.6% 11.1% 11.1% 13.6% 11.4% 10.2% 7.9% 6.8% 2.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
David Manley 8.7% 9.4% 10.1% 10.3% 10.9% 11.3% 10.3% 11.4% 7.3% 5.3% 3.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William McCollum 2.8% 2.2% 3.3% 5.0% 5.9% 6.4% 8.8% 8.4% 10.5% 12.3% 12.6% 10.0% 6.9% 3.9% 1.0% 0.0%
Olivia Sowa 13.5% 12.1% 12.3% 13.2% 9.9% 10.7% 9.9% 7.1% 5.6% 2.7% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brandon DePalma 2.0% 2.7% 3.1% 3.1% 4.1% 5.0% 6.6% 7.4% 8.5% 11.5% 14.4% 14.4% 9.2% 6.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Erik Volk 5.0% 6.3% 5.9% 6.3% 8.9% 8.9% 11.9% 11.0% 10.2% 9.5% 6.6% 5.5% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Zechariah Frantz 1.8% 1.7% 2.2% 3.3% 2.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.7% 8.0% 10.5% 14.0% 16.1% 15.8% 9.0% 2.9% 0.5%
Connor Lothrop 2.8% 2.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.4% 5.6% 6.2% 8.5% 8.7% 13.0% 13.2% 14.0% 7.1% 4.7% 0.5% 0.1%
John TIS 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.9% 3.7% 8.1% 16.1% 34.8% 27.4%
Rowan Barnes 2.8% 2.8% 4.2% 5.6% 6.0% 6.0% 9.1% 10.0% 12.0% 11.4% 10.8% 10.7% 6.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Audrey Craig 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 2.0% 1.3% 1.9% 2.2% 3.5% 5.0% 7.9% 10.3% 21.5% 23.7% 13.8% 4.1%
Matthias Pietrus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% 2.2% 2.9% 7.5% 22.2% 60.3%
Felicity Davies 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 1.5% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1% 5.1% 8.6% 17.6% 25.2% 22.7% 7.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.