Race 5A

sailpack-oriental-intercollegiate

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Olivia Sowa 13.4% 13.2% 14.3% 12.5% 11.5% 11.2% 8.4% 6.2% 4.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Owen Bannasch 22.9% 18.7% 15.4% 14.2% 10.0% 7.7% 5.4% 3.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Connor Lothrop 2.7% 3.1% 4.3% 2.8% 4.2% 6.3% 6.5% 9.8% 11.4% 11.1% 15.5% 11.9% 7.9% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Adam Larson 18.3% 17.1% 14.2% 14.3% 12.7% 8.4% 6.3% 4.7% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Erik Volk 4.4% 5.3% 6.7% 6.6% 10.0% 8.8% 11.1% 10.2% 11.0% 10.9% 8.1% 5.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
David Manley 7.5% 9.7% 10.9% 12.0% 11.0% 11.2% 10.6% 7.7% 8.3% 5.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacob Usher 12.2% 10.1% 12.1% 11.8% 11.8% 10.3% 12.7% 7.6% 5.9% 2.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gregory Walters 8.3% 9.0% 8.9% 9.5% 10.0% 11.3% 11.1% 10.8% 8.2% 6.6% 3.2% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Zechariah Frantz 1.0% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 3.8% 4.4% 5.9% 8.1% 11.3% 12.7% 18.2% 14.5% 7.3% 2.0% 0.2%
William McCollum 3.1% 3.5% 3.8% 4.0% 4.6% 5.4% 6.4% 10.9% 11.9% 14.0% 12.6% 11.9% 5.5% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1%
John TIS 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 1.9% 2.7% 4.7% 10.4% 20.9% 28.5% 25.2%
Grayson Berrier 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 2.4% 3.7% 8.9% 19.3% 26.7% 33.8%
Felicity Davies 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 1.9% 1.8% 3.3% 4.5% 6.0% 11.1% 24.2% 21.4% 14.7% 7.2%
Levi Nathans 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 3.8% 10.2% 19.6% 25.8% 33.1%
Rowan Barnes 3.5% 4.0% 2.9% 4.4% 6.0% 6.8% 7.3% 10.7% 10.7% 12.1% 13.7% 10.7% 5.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Brandon DePalma 1.6% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2% 4.4% 5.9% 6.3% 7.5% 9.5% 12.3% 13.3% 14.3% 10.4% 4.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.