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📊 Prediction Accuracy
78.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University1.36+2.06vs Predicted
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2University of New Hampshire1.02+1.58vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-0.26+3.83vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire0.39+1.21vs Predicted
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5Olin College of Engineering0.52-0.07vs Predicted
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6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.30+1.06vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy0.06-1.28vs Predicted
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8Maine Maritime Academy0.01-1.89vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire-0.78-0.69vs Predicted
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10Williams College-1.22-0.53vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire-1.80-0.17vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-1.36-2.25vs Predicted
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13Worcester Polytechnic Institute-2.44-1.08vs Predicted
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14Middlebury College-2.62-1.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.06Boston University1.360.3%1st Place
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3.58University of New Hampshire1.020.2%1st Place
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6.83Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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5.21University of New Hampshire0.390.1%1st Place
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4.93Olin College of Engineering0.520.1%1st Place
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7.06University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.300.1%1st Place
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5.72Maine Maritime Academy0.060.1%1st Place
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6.11Maine Maritime Academy0.010.1%1st Place
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8.31University of New Hampshire-0.780.0%1st Place
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9.47Williams College-1.220.0%1st Place
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10.83University of New Hampshire-1.800.0%1st Place
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9.75University of New Hampshire-1.360.0%1st Place
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11.92Worcester Polytechnic Institute-2.440.0%1st Place
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12.26Middlebury College-2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Selian | 27.1% | 23.7% | 15.2% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Cannon | 20.7% | 17.8% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| James Sullivan | 7.5% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Jagielski | 9.5% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Kate Myler | 5.4% | 3.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Hyde | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Griffen Horne | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sonja Krajewski | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 4.4% | 1.4% |
| Rem Johannknecht | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 16.0% | 10.1% | 4.8% |
| Cameron McLean | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 14.2% | 18.6% | 20.4% | 13.6% |
| Kathleen Hanson | 1.7% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 14.3% | 17.2% | 11.9% | 5.8% |
| Samuel Ott | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 13.6% | 26.2% | 32.1% |
| Bronwyn Jensen | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 11.7% | 22.8% | 41.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.