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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.90+10.10vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.93+4.95vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.91+8.17vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+1.71vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.76+2.39vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.86+1.03vs Predicted
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7Fordham University2.50+1.45vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.18+1.66vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.77+2.43vs Predicted
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10Drexel University1.35+3.18vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-2.90vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.63+0.28vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.06-6.80vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.00vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.83-7.89vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.11-5.82vs Predicted
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17Princeton University2.35-7.80vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.26-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.1George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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6.95Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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11.17Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.39U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.03Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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8.45Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.66Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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11.43Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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13.18Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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12.28Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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6.2SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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7.11University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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10.18Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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9.2Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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15.87University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wood | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 4.4% |
| Scott Mais | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.5% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 4.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 13.8% | 16.4% | 13.5% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Brian Fox | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 12.3% | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 11.1% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.9% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 12.5% | 56.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.