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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.97vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.86+5.25vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.83+4.33vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.17vs Predicted
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5Princeton University2.35+4.03vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.90+4.89vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+3.88vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.93-1.30vs Predicted
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9Drexel University1.35+4.01vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University1.63+2.22vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.76-3.42vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-3.70vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.50-4.66vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University2.18-4.54vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.69vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.11-5.86vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.77-5.45vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia0.26-2.13vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.97St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.25Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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7.33University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.17SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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9.03Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.89George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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10.88Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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6.7Georgetown University2.930.1%1st Place
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13.01Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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12.22Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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7.58U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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8.34Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.46Old Dominion University2.180.1%1st Place
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10.31U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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10.14Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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11.55Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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15.87University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 10.8% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.2% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 12.3% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 4.5% |
| Scott Mais | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 18.0% | 10.7% |
| Brian Fox | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 8.8% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Will Murray | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Michael Burns | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 3.3% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 5.8% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 54.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.