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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+4.92vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.90+9.04vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64+9.00vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+5.77vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.20vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-0.29vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.76+0.40vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.64-0.25vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.86-2.05vs Predicted
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10Hampton University1.77+1.50vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.83-3.77vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.63+0.16vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.54-1.03vs Predicted
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14Princeton University2.35-5.32vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.35-2.20vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.26-0.06vs Predicted
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17Fordham University2.50-8.44vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University2.18-8.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.92Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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11.04George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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9.77Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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6.2SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.71St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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7.4U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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7.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.640.1%1st Place
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6.95Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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11.5Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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7.23University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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12.16Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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11.97Webb Institute1.540.0%1st Place
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8.68Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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12.8Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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15.94University of Virginia0.260.0%1st Place
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8.56Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.41Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 10.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 3.6% |
| Thomas Green | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 4.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Benton Amthor | 11.6% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 12.0% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Will Murray | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 4.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 1.9% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 12.4% | 11.6% | 8.6% |
| Everett Botwinick | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 7.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.8% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 14.7% | 11.5% |
| Anna Groszkowski | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 14.8% | 53.9% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.