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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University3.22+4.48vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.18+7.48vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+2.66vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.86+2.98vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.06+1.08vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.76+1.46vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+3.66vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.63+3.43vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+1.49vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.07vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.77+0.32vs Predicted
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12Fordham University2.50-3.66vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-3.96vs Predicted
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14George Washington University1.90-3.21vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.35-2.36vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.11-6.06vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.83-9.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.48Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.48Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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5.66St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.98Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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6.08SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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7.46U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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10.66Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.43Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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10.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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10.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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11.32Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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8.34Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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9.04Princeton University2.350.1%1st Place
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10.79George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.64Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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9.94Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
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7.13University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 13.2% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.7% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| Leo Boucher | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 9.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.6% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Gavin McJones | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Brian Fox | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 12.1% | 14.3% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 6.9% |
| Michael Burns | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 12.4% | 13.3% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 1.8% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 8.5% |
| Toby Sullivan | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 26.7% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.