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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.83+5.86vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.76+5.12vs Predicted
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3Cornell University2.86+3.87vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.91+6.60vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.99+5.09vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.50+2.43vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College3.06-0.88vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-2.44vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University3.22-3.28vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.18-0.60vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+0.73vs Predicted
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12Drexel University1.35+0.60vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.35-4.02vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.77-2.74vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-4.97vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University1.63-4.28vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.11-7.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.86University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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7.12U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.87Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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10.6Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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10.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.990.0%1st Place
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8.43Fordham University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.12SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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5.56St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.72Georgetown University3.220.1%1st Place
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9.4Old Dominion University2.180.0%1st Place
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11.73St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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12.6Drexel University1.350.0%1st Place
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8.98Princeton University2.350.0%1st Place
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11.26Hampton University1.770.0%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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11.72Christopher Newport University1.630.0%1st Place
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9.92Washington College2.110.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Benton Amthor | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 13.7% | 12.6% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 10.9% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 16.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 15.3% | 23.2% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.4% |
| Brian Fox | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 14.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.7% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.