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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College2.35+5.95vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39+4.79vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.62+2.93vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.24+6.63vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.90+3.28vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+2.70vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.35vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.35-1.27vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-4.34vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.35-3.01vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.69-1.76vs Predicted
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12Cornell University1.27-1.09vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.79-0.87vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.81-2.06vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.21-0.99vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia0.06-1.50vs Predicted
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17Drexel University-1.22-0.14vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.08-6.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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6.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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5.93Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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10.63Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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8.7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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4.65U. S. Naval Academy2.990.2%1st Place
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6.73George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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4.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.99University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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9.24Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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10.91Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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12.13Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.94Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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14.01Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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16.86Drexel University-1.220.0%1st Place
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11.09Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Edward Cook | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.4% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 16.2% | 14.6% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 5.7% | 0.7% |
| David Grace | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 10.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 2.3% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 2.1% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 17.9% | 21.8% | 9.6% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 26.5% | 14.0% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 12.4% | 67.8% |
| Asher Green | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 5.0% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.