← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1George Washington University2.35+5.89vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University1.27+8.90vs Predicted
-
3SUNY Maritime College2.35+3.90vs Predicted
-
4University of Pennsylvania2.35+2.66vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+3.61vs Predicted
-
6Christopher Newport University0.79+6.27vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.26vs Predicted
-
8Princeton University1.08+3.16vs Predicted
-
9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-4.31vs Predicted
-
10Old Dominion University1.24+0.93vs Predicted
-
11Hampton University0.81+1.25vs Predicted
-
12Georgetown University2.62-5.88vs Predicted
-
13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-6.48vs Predicted
-
14Webb Institute1.69-5.14vs Predicted
-
15Fordham University1.90-6.69vs Predicted
-
16Washington College0.21-2.00vs Predicted
-
17University of Virginia0.06-2.50vs Predicted
-
18Drexel University-1.22-1.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.89George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
-
10.9Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
-
6.9SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
-
6.66University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
-
8.61U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
-
12.27Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
-
4.74U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
11.16Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
-
4.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
-
10.93Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
-
12.25Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
-
6.12Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
-
6.52Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
-
8.86Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
8.31Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
-
14.0Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
-
14.5University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
-
16.68Drexel University-1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Timms | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 0.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| David Grace | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 13.9% | 8.7% | 4.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 15.0% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 1.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 15.2% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 0.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 4.1% |
| Edward Cook | 10.6% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 13.1% | 16.8% | 19.6% | 11.2% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 26.7% | 13.3% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 15.1% | 63.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.