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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+3.92vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.62+4.01vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.81vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.35+2.68vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.35+1.76vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.27+4.72vs Predicted
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7Hampton University0.81+5.19vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.24+2.64vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.35-2.32vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.69-0.70vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-2.26vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.79+0.55vs Predicted
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13Princeton University1.08-1.90vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.39-7.62vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.90-6.72vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.21-1.95vs Predicted
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17University of Virginia0.06-2.52vs Predicted
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18Drexel University-1.22-1.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.92U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.01Georgetown University2.620.1%1st Place
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4.81St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.68George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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6.76University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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10.72Cornell University1.270.0%1st Place
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12.19Hampton University0.810.0%1st Place
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10.64Old Dominion University1.240.0%1st Place
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6.68SUNY Maritime College2.350.1%1st Place
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9.3Webb Institute1.690.1%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.1%1st Place
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12.55Christopher Newport University0.790.0%1st Place
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11.1Princeton University1.080.0%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.390.1%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University1.900.1%1st Place
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14.05Washington College0.210.0%1st Place
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14.48University of Virginia0.060.0%1st Place
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16.7Drexel University-1.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 13.6% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Cook | 8.3% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 14.0% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Owen Timms | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucija Ruzevic | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 2.8% |
| Diogo Silva | 3.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 0.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| William Weinbecker | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 4.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 17.1% | 21.0% | 11.2% |
| Connor Lothrop | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 17.3% | 24.3% | 14.2% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 15.7% | 64.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.