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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College0.72+1.38vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.53+0.59vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-1.37+2.43vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.26-0.25vs Predicted
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5University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27+0.33vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-0.52-1.85vs Predicted
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7Amherst College-0.74-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.38Dartmouth College0.720.4%1st Place
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2.59Dartmouth College0.530.3%1st Place
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5.43Middlebury College-1.370.1%1st Place
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3.75Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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5.33University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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4.15Middlebury College-0.520.1%1st Place
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4.38Amherst College-0.740.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Vogel | 35.2% | 25.2% | 18.5% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 26.2% | 29.0% | 20.1% | 14.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| William Procter | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 22.7% | 37.6% |
| Penelope Weekes | 11.7% | 15.5% | 17.1% | 20.2% | 17.8% | 12.5% | 5.2% |
| Andy Giaya | 3.7% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 23.1% | 33.7% |
| Grace Augspurger | 9.2% | 11.0% | 17.4% | 17.2% | 18.2% | 17.6% | 9.4% |
| James Knowlton | 8.9% | 9.7% | 13.1% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 18.9% | 12.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.