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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.2
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Amherst College-0.74+3.42vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.72+0.38vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College0.53-0.41vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College-0.26-0.22vs Predicted
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5University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27+0.33vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-0.52-1.82vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.37-1.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.42Amherst College-0.740.1%1st Place
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2.38Dartmouth College0.720.3%1st Place
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2.59Dartmouth College0.530.3%1st Place
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3.78Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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5.33University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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4.18Middlebury College-0.520.1%1st Place
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5.33Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Knowlton | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 20.1% | 18.4% | 14.5% |
| Connor Vogel | 32.3% | 28.6% | 20.4% | 10.2% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 28.5% | 25.6% | 21.4% | 13.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Penelope Weekes | 12.8% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 22.3% | 16.5% | 13.6% | 5.3% |
| Andy Giaya | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 23.1% | 32.7% |
| Grace Augspurger | 8.9% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 18.6% | 19.8% | 16.2% | 10.3% |
| William Procter | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 22.2% | 35.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.