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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Middlebury College-0.26+2.66vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.53+0.58vs Predicted
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3Amherst College-0.74+1.50vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.72-1.60vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.52-0.79vs Predicted
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6Middlebury College-1.37-0.56vs Predicted
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7University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-1.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.66Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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2.58Dartmouth College0.530.3%1st Place
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4.5Amherst College-0.740.1%1st Place
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2.4Dartmouth College0.720.3%1st Place
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4.21Middlebury College-0.520.1%1st Place
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5.44Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
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5.21University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penelope Weekes | 13.7% | 16.5% | 17.1% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 11.8% | 5.6% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 29.0% | 25.4% | 20.5% | 13.7% | 7.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| James Knowlton | 8.4% | 8.0% | 13.3% | 15.4% | 20.6% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| Connor Vogel | 33.5% | 25.9% | 18.4% | 13.6% | 6.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Grace Augspurger | 7.6% | 11.7% | 15.3% | 19.6% | 19.1% | 16.3% | 10.4% |
| William Procter | 3.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 23.2% | 36.3% |
| Andy Giaya | 4.5% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 24.7% | 31.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.