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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.3
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College0.72+1.37vs Predicted
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2Amherst College-0.74+2.46vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College-0.26+0.74vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.53-1.38vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.52-0.78vs Predicted
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6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-0.72vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.37-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.37Dartmouth College0.720.3%1st Place
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4.46Amherst College-0.740.1%1st Place
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3.74Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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2.62Dartmouth College0.530.3%1st Place
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4.22Middlebury College-0.520.1%1st Place
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5.28University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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5.31Middlebury College-1.370.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Vogel | 35.0% | 27.0% | 17.3% | 11.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| James Knowlton | 6.9% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 15.7% | 21.9% | 18.7% | 13.4% |
| Penelope Weekes | 11.8% | 14.6% | 20.3% | 17.8% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 5.5% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 28.7% | 25.6% | 18.0% | 15.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Grace Augspurger | 7.5% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 18.5% | 18.1% | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Andy Giaya | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 23.9% | 32.3% |
| William Procter | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 22.3% | 36.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.