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📊 Prediction Accuracy
85.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.4
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Middlebury College-0.52+3.07vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.72+0.36vs Predicted
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3Amherst College-0.74+1.51vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College0.53-1.35vs Predicted
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5Middlebury College-0.26-1.23vs Predicted
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6University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-0.70vs Predicted
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7Middlebury College-1.37-1.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.07Middlebury College-0.520.1%1st Place
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2.36Dartmouth College0.720.4%1st Place
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4.51Amherst College-0.740.1%1st Place
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2.65Dartmouth College0.530.3%1st Place
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3.77Middlebury College-0.260.1%1st Place
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5.3University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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5.35Middlebury College-1.370.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grace Augspurger | 10.7% | 12.9% | 13.6% | 18.8% | 19.2% | 15.5% | 9.3% |
| Connor Vogel | 35.1% | 26.3% | 18.3% | 11.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| James Knowlton | 8.1% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 15.6% | 20.5% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| Michael Hanrahan | 27.0% | 25.4% | 20.8% | 13.7% | 9.1% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| Penelope Weekes | 11.4% | 15.0% | 19.1% | 18.6% | 17.1% | 12.8% | 6.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 16.0% | 24.7% | 31.4% |
| William Procter | 4.2% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 23.0% | 36.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.