← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
100.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.0
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College1.29+0.64vs Predicted
-
2Middlebury College0.43+0.32vs Predicted
-
3Middlebury College-1.44+1.39vs Predicted
-
4Amherst College-1.61+0.60vs Predicted
-
5University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.30-1.79vs Predicted
-
6Middlebury College-1.80-1.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.64Dartmouth College1.290.6%1st Place
-
2.32Middlebury College0.430.3%1st Place
-
4.39Middlebury College-1.440.0%1st Place
-
4.6Amherst College-1.610.0%1st Place
-
3.21University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.300.1%1st Place
-
4.84Middlebury College-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeline Koelbel | 56.1% | 28.7% | 11.4% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Walter Chiles | 25.7% | 34.8% | 25.2% | 10.5% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Benjamin Joseph | 3.8% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 25.3% | 26.7% | 25.2% |
| Adrian Whitney | 2.1% | 6.1% | 11.3% | 19.7% | 31.8% | 29.0% |
| Kate Myler | 10.3% | 18.5% | 32.0% | 23.1% | 11.2% | 4.9% |
| Olivia Fulghum | 2.0% | 4.1% | 8.9% | 18.3% | 26.3% | 40.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.