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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Washington0.62+2.48vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.08+2.69vs Predicted
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3University of Washington-0.94+4.48vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University-0.79+3.04vs Predicted
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5University of Washington-0.60+1.48vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.04-1.19vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University-0.50-0.89vs Predicted
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8Oregon State University-1.15-0.16vs Predicted
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9University of Oregon-0.14-3.94vs Predicted
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10Oregon State University-1.48-1.27vs Predicted
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11University of Oregon-1.38-2.31vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University-0.99-4.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.48University of Washington0.620.2%1st Place
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4.69Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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7.48University of Washington-0.940.1%1st Place
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7.04Western Washington University-0.790.0%1st Place
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6.48University of Washington-0.600.1%1st Place
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4.81University of Washington0.040.1%1st Place
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6.11Western Washington University-0.500.1%1st Place
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7.84Oregon State University-1.150.0%1st Place
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5.06University of Oregon-0.140.1%1st Place
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8.73Oregon State University-1.480.0%1st Place
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8.69University of Oregon-1.380.0%1st Place
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7.59Western Washington University-0.990.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Pamplin | 22.3% | 19.4% | 16.8% | 13.1% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Gerber | 12.8% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 11.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Jaxon Gordon | 6.0% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 10.0% |
| Maxwell Dodd | 4.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| Henry Stier | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% |
| Peter Kelleher | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Caroline Hurley | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Marty Weigel | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.9% |
| Dylan Murphy | 10.2% | 12.0% | 13.7% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Paul Schreiner | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 18.0% | 23.8% |
| Sadie Creemer | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 23.0% |
| Kurtis Johnston | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 13.3% | 10.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.