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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Western Washington University0.08+3.52vs Predicted
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2University of Washington0.62+1.27vs Predicted
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3University of Washington0.04+1.52vs Predicted
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4University of Oregon-0.14+0.96vs Predicted
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5University of Oregon-1.38+3.16vs Predicted
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6University of Washington-0.60+0.15vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University-0.99+0.05vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University-0.63-1.88vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-0.94-2.08vs Predicted
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10Oregon State University-1.15-2.46vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University-2.38-0.63vs Predicted
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12Oregon State University-1.48-3.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52Western Washington University0.080.1%1st Place
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3.27University of Washington0.620.2%1st Place
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4.52University of Washington0.040.1%1st Place
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4.96University of Oregon-0.140.1%1st Place
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8.16University of Oregon-1.380.0%1st Place
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6.15University of Washington-0.600.1%1st Place
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7.05Western Washington University-0.990.1%1st Place
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6.12Western Washington University-0.630.1%1st Place
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6.92University of Washington-0.940.0%1st Place
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7.54Oregon State University-1.150.0%1st Place
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10.37Western Washington University-2.380.0%1st Place
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8.42Oregon State University-1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Gerber | 14.1% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Erin Pamplin | 23.2% | 21.9% | 16.5% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Kelleher | 15.0% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Dylan Murphy | 9.8% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Sadie Creemer | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 16.9% | 12.7% |
| Henry Stier | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 12.5% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Kurtis Johnston | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 5.2% |
| Soren Althoff | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 2.0% |
| Jaxon Gordon | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 4.0% |
| Marty Weigel | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 8.2% |
| Piper Easton | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 53.0% |
| Paul Schreiner | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 21.0% | 12.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.