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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.85+4.96vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.58+5.55vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin0.70+11.08vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.30+0.27vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.27+2.75vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.34+1.55vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.06+0.47vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.48vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.93+2.19vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.62+0.09vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-1.76vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.70-1.91vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.45-2.06vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.12-2.00vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.26-4.15vs Predicted
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16University of Texas-1.17+1.09vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.83-7.90vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston2.38-9.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96Yale University2.8511.3%1st Place
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7.55Boston College2.586.7%1st Place
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14.08University of Wisconsin0.701.0%1st Place
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4.27Stanford University3.3018.2%1st Place
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7.75Georgetown University2.277.3%1st Place
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7.55Dartmouth College2.347.1%1st Place
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7.47Bowdoin College2.066.7%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.8%1st Place
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11.19University of Miami1.932.9%1st Place
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10.09Fordham University1.623.9%1st Place
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9.24University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.9%1st Place
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10.09Jacksonville University1.703.5%1st Place
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10.94University of South Florida1.453.2%1st Place
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12.0North Carolina State University1.122.6%1st Place
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10.85Old Dominion University1.263.7%1st Place
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17.09University of Texas-1.170.1%1st Place
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9.1Tufts University1.834.9%1st Place
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8.26College of Charleston2.385.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 11.3% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 11.9% | 30.2% | 13.4% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 18.2% | 16.5% | 14.1% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Barnard | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Chase Decker | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 1.8% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 0.9% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 0.6% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 1.4% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 1.1% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 10.1% | 75.6% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.