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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+6.11vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+3.87vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.75+6.81vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.41+2.98vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.69+0.94vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.55+0.45vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.28+4.39vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.57+2.22vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.30-1.69vs Predicted
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10University of Hawaii1.15+2.18vs Predicted
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11Tulane University2.70-5.00vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.98-3.09vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.27-1.71vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.44-3.49vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University1.16-3.12vs Predicted
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16Texas A&M University-0.12-0.26vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.65-6.84vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.73-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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5.87Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.81College of Charleston1.750.0%1st Place
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6.98Brown University2.410.1%1st Place
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5.94Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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6.45Georgetown University2.550.1%1st Place
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11.39Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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10.22Fordham University1.570.0%1st Place
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7.31Harvard University2.300.1%1st Place
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12.18University of Hawaii1.150.0%1st Place
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6.0Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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8.91Tufts University1.980.1%1st Place
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11.29Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.270.0%1st Place
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10.51Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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11.88Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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15.74Texas A&M University-0.120.0%1st Place
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10.16North Carolina State University1.650.0%1st Place
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13.25Connecticut College0.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Grace Squires | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.4% |
| Caroline Bayless | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Bridget Green | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 5.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| Sarah Burn | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Mercy Tangredi | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.1% | 8.8% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 11.3% | 12.2% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Chloe Holder | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Heather Kerns | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 5.3% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 6.4% |
| Hanna Progelhof | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 15.6% | 49.7% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 2.8% |
| Miya Preyer | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 13.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.