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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+7.57vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.62+7.13vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.42+2.95vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+4.73vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.83+3.04vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12+0.95vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.30+3.36vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-1.51vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.91+2.94vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.69-1.08vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.65+2.01vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.94-4.06vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.57-3.99vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04-2.93vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University2.01-3.52vs Predicted
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16George Washington University1.90-3.97vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-8.13vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College1.74-5.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.57U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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9.13Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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5.95Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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8.73University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.04University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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6.95Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.36Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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11.94Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.92Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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13.01Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.94Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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9.01Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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11.07U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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11.48North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.03George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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12.48Eckerd College1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McJones | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.9% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Atlee Kohl | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Jack Egan | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 4.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.0% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.0% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| Bridget Green | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Emily Allen | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 12.4% | 22.5% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Michael Burns | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% |
| Adam Larson | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 13.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.