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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+5.74vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+3.91vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.62+6.24vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.66+4.70vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.76+3.37vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+2.74vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.08vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.90+3.84vs Predicted
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9Boston University2.57+0.18vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.69-1.04vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.04+0.50vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University2.01-0.10vs Predicted
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13Eckerd College1.74-0.61vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.12-7.30vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University2.30-4.76vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.65-3.02vs Predicted
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17Tulane University2.94-9.21vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.91-6.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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5.91Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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9.24Tufts University2.620.0%1st Place
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8.7University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.37U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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8.08University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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11.84George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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9.18Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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8.96Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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11.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.040.0%1st Place
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11.9North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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12.39Eckerd College1.740.0%1st Place
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6.7Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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10.24Roger Williams University2.300.0%1st Place
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12.98Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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7.79Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.77Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Connor Nelson | 10.4% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Trevor Davis | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.3% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% |
| Bridget Green | 6.8% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.5% |
| Adam Larson | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 12.3% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 16.3% |
| Jack Egan | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% |
| Emily Allen | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 21.8% |
| Cameron Giblin | 8.0% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 11.8% | 10.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.