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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+5.19vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+5.42vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.76+5.87vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.69+4.74vs Predicted
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5George Washington University1.90+6.98vs Predicted
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6Yale University3.12+1.18vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.23vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.62+1.11vs Predicted
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9Eckerd College1.74+3.82vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22-3.00vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.87vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University2.01+0.09vs Predicted
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13Boston University2.57-3.74vs Predicted
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14Tulane University2.94-6.37vs Predicted
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15Jacksonville University2.17-4.00vs Predicted
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16University of Miami2.66-6.90vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-3.72vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute1.91-6.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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7.42Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.87U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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8.74Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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11.98George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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7.18Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.23University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.11Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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12.82Eckerd College1.740.0%1st Place
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7.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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9.13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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12.09North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.26Boston University2.570.1%1st Place
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7.63Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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11.0Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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9.1University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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13.28U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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11.96Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Carlos de Castro | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Gavin McJones | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% |
| Bridget Green | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Tyler Wood | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 12.1% | 13.0% |
| Jack Egan | 8.3% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.9% | 16.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% |
| Adam Larson | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 12.6% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| Cameron Giblin | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.6% |
| Atlee Kohl | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Thomas Green | 2.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 22.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 11.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.