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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.76+7.82vs Predicted
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2Brown University3.42+4.10vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+3.93vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+4.84vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.12+2.13vs Predicted
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6University of Miami2.66+3.06vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.83+1.30vs Predicted
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8Boston University2.57+1.31vs Predicted
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9Webb Institute1.91+3.15vs Predicted
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10North Carolina State University2.01+1.99vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.69-1.96vs Predicted
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12Tulane University2.94-3.79vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University3.10-5.94vs Predicted
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14Tufts University2.62-5.10vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-1.89vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University2.17-4.83vs Predicted
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17George Washington University1.90-4.73vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College1.74-5.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.82U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.1Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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8.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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7.13Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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9.06University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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8.3University of Pennsylvania2.830.1%1st Place
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9.31Boston University2.570.0%1st Place
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12.15Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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11.99North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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9.04Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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8.21Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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7.06Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.9Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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13.11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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11.17Jacksonville University2.170.0%1st Place
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12.27George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.64Eckerd College1.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin McJones | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| Connor Nelson | 9.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% |
| Jack Egan | 9.0% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| Tyler Mowry | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.4% |
| Adam Larson | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 11.9% |
| Bridget Green | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
| Thomas Green | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 20.9% |
| Owen Bannasch | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 7.7% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 13.9% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 16.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.