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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.42+4.83vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.22+4.46vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.12+3.80vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.00+3.08vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+3.35vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.76+2.11vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.91+4.65vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.66+0.43vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University2.01+2.18vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.90+1.88vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.69-2.51vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.62-2.96vs Predicted
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13Tulane University2.94-5.79vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.64-1.73vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.74-2.78vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.65-3.29vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.18-6.37vs Predicted
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18Boston University1.60-5.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.83Brown University3.420.1%1st Place
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6.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.220.1%1st Place
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6.8Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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7.08Roger Williams University3.000.1%1st Place
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8.35Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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8.11U. S. Naval Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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11.65Webb Institute1.910.0%1st Place
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8.43University of Miami2.660.1%1st Place
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11.18North Carolina State University2.010.0%1st Place
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11.88George Washington University1.900.0%1st Place
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8.49Cornell University2.690.1%1st Place
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9.04Tufts University2.620.1%1st Place
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7.21Tulane University2.940.1%1st Place
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12.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.640.0%1st Place
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12.22Eckerd College1.740.0%1st Place
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12.71Jacksonville University1.650.0%1st Place
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10.63University of Pennsylvania2.180.0%1st Place
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12.65Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Nelson | 11.5% | 12.5% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Egan | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 8.6% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| Gavin McJones | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% |
| Atlee Kohl | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Adam Larson | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 3.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 10.9% |
| Bridget Green | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Trevor Davis | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
| Cameron Giblin | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Green | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 14.1% |
| Eden Nykamp | 2.4% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 12.8% |
| Emily Allen | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 16.1% |
| Torrey Chisari | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% |
| Porter Bell | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 16.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.