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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.40+4.50vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy2.99+4.95vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+6.31vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.35+5.28vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.69+6.96vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.38+3.26vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.86+0.30vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.26vs Predicted
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9Tulane University2.50-0.26vs Predicted
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10Boston University2.07+0.82vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.46+2.03vs Predicted
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12Jacksonville University1.24+1.96vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.27-3.40vs Predicted
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14Yale University2.75-6.55vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-3.48vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-7.82vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College1.70-4.85vs Predicted
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18George Washington University2.35-8.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.5Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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6.95U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.31Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.28University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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11.96Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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9.26Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.3Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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8.74Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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10.82Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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13.03North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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13.96Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Miami2.270.1%1st Place
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7.45Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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11.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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8.18Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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12.15Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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9.25George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam O'Keefe | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 13.3% | 11.4% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 2.0% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| Micky Munns | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.9% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 18.5% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 13.2% | 30.0% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% |
| Dana Haig | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| matthew Monts | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 10.9% |
| Owen Timms | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.