← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania2.35+8.59vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+4.95vs Predicted
-
3Tufts University2.43+6.28vs Predicted
-
4Tulane University2.50+4.66vs Predicted
-
5Eckerd College1.70+6.84vs Predicted
-
6Cornell University2.86+1.30vs Predicted
-
7Yale University2.75+0.70vs Predicted
-
8Brown University3.40-2.74vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy2.99-2.33vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.38-0.45vs Predicted
-
11University of Miami2.27-1.15vs Predicted
-
12Boston University2.07-1.06vs Predicted
-
13George Washington University2.35-3.77vs Predicted
-
14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-6.07vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-3.50vs Predicted
-
16Webb Institute1.69-3.82vs Predicted
-
17North Carolina State University1.46-3.96vs Predicted
-
18Jacksonville University1.24-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.59University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
-
6.95St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
9.28Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
-
8.66Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
-
11.84Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
-
7.3Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
-
7.7Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
-
5.26Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
6.67U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
9.55Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
-
9.85University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
-
10.94Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
-
9.23George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
-
7.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
-
11.5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
-
12.18Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
13.04North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
-
13.54Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.9% |
| matthew Monts | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 11.5% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 13.8% | 14.4% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% |
| Micky Munns | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
| Owen Timms | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| Dana Haig | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 7.7% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 12.6% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 19.8% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 12.1% | 24.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.