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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.43+8.21vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.35+7.55vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.38+6.41vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+4.07vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+6.38vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.24+7.71vs Predicted
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7Tulane University2.50+1.66vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-1.36vs Predicted
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9Brown University3.40-3.84vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.75-2.08vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy2.99-4.17vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.35-2.31vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.86-5.89vs Predicted
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14Boston University2.07-3.83vs Predicted
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15North Carolina State University1.46-2.08vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.69-3.83vs Predicted
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17University of Miami2.07-6.38vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College1.70-6.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.21Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.55University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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9.41Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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8.07Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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11.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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13.71Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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8.66Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.16Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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7.92Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.83U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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9.69George Washington University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.11Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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10.17Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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12.92North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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12.17Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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10.62University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
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11.79Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Mueller | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.8% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| Dana Haig | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 14.0% | 26.4% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Owen Timms | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 3.6% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.7% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Micky Munns | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.4% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 18.4% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 12.3% |
| Richard McCann | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% |
| matthew Monts | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.