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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.35+8.51vs Predicted
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2Cornell University2.86+5.44vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.75+4.90vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38+5.09vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64+3.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.74vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.99-0.27vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.40-2.78vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.46+3.91vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.35-0.42vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University1.24+2.69vs Predicted
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12Eckerd College1.70+0.31vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.43-4.10vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-2.81vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.50-6.34vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.69-3.84vs Predicted
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17Boston University2.07-6.38vs Predicted
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18University of Miami2.07-7.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.51University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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7.44Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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7.9Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.09Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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8.09Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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6.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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6.73U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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5.22Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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12.91North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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9.58George Washington University2.350.1%1st Place
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13.69Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.31Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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8.9Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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11.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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8.66Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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12.16Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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10.62Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
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10.27University of Miami2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Garcon | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 2.3% |
| Hayden Earl | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| Dana Haig | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.3% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 16.7% |
| Owen Timms | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Brent Penwarden | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 26.3% |
| matthew Monts | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 13.8% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 12.7% |
| Micky Munns | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% |
| Richard McCann | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.