← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+5.84vs Predicted
-
2Webb Institute1.69+10.13vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania2.35+6.35vs Predicted
-
4University of Miami2.27+5.30vs Predicted
-
5Yale University2.75+2.45vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University2.43+2.72vs Predicted
-
7Brown University3.40-1.87vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.55vs Predicted
-
9Roger Williams University2.38-0.09vs Predicted
-
10St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+2.30vs Predicted
-
11Tulane University2.50-2.38vs Predicted
-
12Eckerd College1.70+0.07vs Predicted
-
13Cornell University2.86-6.05vs Predicted
-
14North Carolina State University1.46-1.62vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-7.13vs Predicted
-
16Jacksonville University1.24-2.42vs Predicted
-
17Boston University1.69-5.09vs Predicted
-
18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-6.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
-
12.13Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
-
9.35University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
-
9.3University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
-
7.45Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
-
8.72Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
-
5.13Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
-
6.45U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
-
8.91Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
-
12.3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
-
8.62Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
-
12.07Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
-
6.95Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
-
12.38North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
-
7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
-
13.58Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
-
11.91Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
-
11.03U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 8.5% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 10.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.9% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.6% | 9.5% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| Thad Lettsome | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| matthew Monts | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% |
| Hayden Earl | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 14.4% |
| Dana Haig | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 13.6% | 25.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 11.0% | 10.9% | 10.7% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.