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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+6.69vs Predicted
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2University of Miami2.27+7.66vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.50+5.75vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+7.90vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.55vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.40-0.86vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.43+1.78vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.99-1.54vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.86-2.04vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania2.35-0.63vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.46+1.81vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-3.76vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute1.69-1.37vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.38-5.23vs Predicted
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15Eckerd College1.70-3.25vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.69-4.13vs Predicted
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17Jacksonville University1.24-3.44vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82-6.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.69Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.66University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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8.75Tulane University2.500.1%1st Place
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11.9St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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5.14Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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8.78Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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6.46U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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6.96Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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9.37University of Pennsylvania2.350.1%1st Place
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12.81North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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8.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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11.63Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.77Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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11.75Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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11.87Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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13.56Jacksonville University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| Thad Lettsome | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 11.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.2% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.6% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Smith | 9.3% | 11.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Hayden Earl | 7.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 17.1% |
| Dana Haig | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.9% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| matthew Monts | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% |
| Brent Penwarden | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 25.1% |
| William Weinbecker | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.