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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.99+5.95vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+5.86vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.61+9.57vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.27+5.58vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.82+5.54vs Predicted
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7Brown University3.40-1.68vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.69+3.92vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.64-0.97vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-0.79vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland1.62+1.44vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.35-2.33vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.86-5.88vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College1.70-2.36vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.70-7.19vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.38-6.76vs Predicted
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17North Carolina State University1.46-3.95vs Predicted
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18Boston University2.07-7.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.95U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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7.86Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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12.57Jacksonville University1.610.0%1st Place
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9.58University of Miami2.270.0%1st Place
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6.75St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.1%1st Place
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11.54U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.820.0%1st Place
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5.32Brown University3.400.1%1st Place
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11.92Webb Institute1.690.0%1st Place
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8.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.640.1%1st Place
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9.21Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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12.44St. Mary's College of Maryland1.620.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Pennsylvania2.350.0%1st Place
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7.12Cornell University2.860.1%1st Place
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11.64Eckerd College1.700.0%1st Place
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7.81Tulane University2.700.1%1st Place
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9.24Roger Williams University2.380.0%1st Place
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13.05North Carolina State University1.460.0%1st Place
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10.31Boston University2.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Carmen Cowles | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Igoe | 1.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 13.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| William Weinbecker | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% |
| Liam O'Keefe | 14.6% | 13.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Dana Haig | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 11.6% | 15.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Hayden Earl | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| matthew Monts | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 10.7% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 20.5% |
| Micky Munns | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.